Bad news for retirees waiting for a raise! 'Citizens are groaning in the supermarket'

Social Security Institution (SGK) expert İsa Karakaş offered important assessments regarding the current state of civil servant and retiree salaries and the January 2026 raise in his article published in Türkiye Newspaper. Karakaş stated, “Like all those on fixed incomes, the salaries of our civil servant and retiree brothers and sisters have been eroding in the clutches of inflation for years.”

Karakaş noted that the salaries of current civil servant retirees are still calculated according to the Pension Fund Law, noting that those who entered the Social Security Institution (SGK) system after 2008 are too young to retire until 2033. Therefore, he emphasized that his analysis focuses only on civil servant retirees under the old system.

"CITIZENS ARE MOANING AT THE MARKET CASH CHECKOUT"

Karakaş, in his calculations based on the latest inflation figures, stated that the increase in the consumer price index (CPI) will be 3.23 percent as of September 2025. Karakaş stated that the increase in food, transportation, and housing prices has particularly deepened financial hardship, adding, "People are still groaning at the grocery store checkout."

Karakaş stated that cumulative inflation in the July-August period was 4.14 percent, and that this rate increased to 7.5 percent with the September data, and that a 13.64 percent update and a 1,000 TL base increase in civil servant salaries were guaranteed.

He also shared his expectation of a salary increase of 16.5% to 18.5% by the end of the year.

SEYYANEN PRICE HIKE EXPECTATIONS ARE WEAK

Karakaş also addressed the issue of salary raises and welfare benefits, a topic of considerable public interest. He emphasized that, according to information he received from Ankara insiders, the government has taken a "very strict stance" on the issue.

Karakaş, who stated, "Those who are expecting a raise in January 2026 will once again be disappointed," commented that "it's too early for now" regarding the welfare share. He also stated in his article that he would notify readers if there were any positive developments.

WILL INFLATION REMAIN BELOW 30 PERCENT?

Karakaş reminded that the government set a 28.5 percent inflation target for the end of the year, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Market Participants Survey predicted this rate as 29.86 percent.

He pointed out that this rate is a psychological threshold in the disinflation process, saying, “Even if it is 29.999 percent, it should not exceed 30 percent.”

He also stated that the government has started a "rigorous period" in the fight against inflation three months before the end of the year and that some public sector raises may be postponed.

In his assessment, SGK Expert İsa Karakaş stated that a 16-18 percent salary increase and a 1,000 TL base increase for civil servants and retirees in January 2026 have been confirmed, but the likelihood of a raise is slim.

He stated that the government is targeting a rate below 30 percent in the fight against inflation, and that developments regarding the welfare share will become clear in the coming weeks.

Source: Turkey Newspaper