Despite Youth, Expect High-Scoring Affair Between Longhorns, Buckeyes

With the nation’s No. 1 and No. 3 teams squaring off, there’s no question where the center of the college football universe will be this Saturday.

Stand up Columbus, Ohio.

The reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes opened as 3-point favorites over the Arch Manning-armed Texas Longhorns a few months ago. Money has mostly shown for Texas, dipping the line to -2.5 and -2.

Las Vegas sportsbooks will likely be rooting for OSU.

"They’re gonna be jamming Texas like no other," Wynn Resorts trading manager Motoi Pearson told me. "They like this Arch Manning cat."

All that said, Ohio State is still favored.

Sure, the Buckeyes lost a whopping 14 players to April’s NFL Draft, but the talent is undoubtedly there. Home field advantage matters, too. It does feel like anyone backing the Horns is hopeful OSU’s younger offensive talent doesn’t rise to the challenge.

It’s also easy to doubt Ohio State redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, who is making his first career collegiate start at quarterback this weekend.

He might be young, but surrounding weaponry is no issue for Will Howard’s successor. Ohio State has the best receiver room in the country and odds are good one (or two) of the Buckeye tailbacks will play on Sundays.

"There’s not enough respect for Sayin," Pearson said. "I guess people don’t think he’s ready for the big moment against Texas and the mighty Arch. I think the line is perfect, and I’m willing to book it either way."

Best guess as to what side the book will need by kickoff?

"We’ll need Buckeyes," Pearson forecasted.

As for the game’s total, sharps moved Under 50.5 almost immediately and there’s been steady one-way action to drive the market to 48 and 47.5.

I understand the initial blitz but don’t agree with the chase.

I’ve spoken to a handful of professional bettors who are holding out hope that the total touches 47 so they can bet Over one of the most key totals in football — 27-20 and 24-23 are relatively common landing scores after all.

And numbers matter in this racket.

Ohio State lost eight starters from last season’s national championship defense. Talented four- and five-star players will fill those roles, but it’s crazy to expect this D to have a field day against Manning & Co.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns defense returns six starters and that side of the ball should be solid by the time SEC play heats up. But this secondary should struggle against NFL receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.

As we get closer to kickoff, I’m more willing to zig since the market has already zagged. I respect those who came Under 50.5 and 50 and 49, et cetera, et cetera. But it’s a new game at 47.5. And I don’t think we’ll ever see that 47.

I’m buying the dip and betting on offense.

PICK: Over 47.5 points scored by both teams combined (-112)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!