College Football Week 7 Picks, Preview: What To Expect in OSU-Illinois, Indiana-Oregon

What a big Saturday the Big Ten has coming up.

Gus Johnson, Jenny Taft and I will be on the call for one of the two ranked matchups the conference has to offer in Week 7, when No. 17 Illinois hosts top-ranked Ohio State as part of FOX's "Big Noon Kickoff."

There's another top-10 Big Ten tilt between Indiana and Oregon later in the day, while 15th-ranked Michigan and USC battle in a possible must-win game for a pair of College Football Playoff hopefuls.

The SEC also has a few pivotal games this weekend, including the Red River Rivalry between No. 6 Oklahoma and Texas.

Let's preview the Ohio State-Illinois matchup and give out picks for the other top games this weekend.

The Buckeyes come into this one with what has become the best single unit in college football. Ohio State's defense, led by new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, has been outstanding. It has great individuals, but it also has what I think is one of the more intricate schemes now going on in college football — and it can execute it because of the versatility of really three individuals: linebacker Arvell Reese, linebacker Sonny Styles and safety Caleb Downs. Their versatility, intellect and the way that they can handle concepts make this defense so difficult to face.

From an offensive perspective, there are no indicators of what Ohio State is going to run on defense. The unit has only given up five points per game and just two touchdowns this season.

But that offense for Illinois has gotten something going in the past couple of weeks. We were there in Champaign two weeks ago when the Illini got the run game going against USC, and then they got the explosive pass game going against Purdue last week. Illinois is averaging 38.5 points and over 500 yards over the past two games since that loss to Indiana. QB Luke Altmyer threw for 390 yards last week and is playing great football that’s going under the radar.

Altmyer’s counterpart, QB Julian Sayin, is a young guy, but Ohio State has allowed him to develop slowly — and we’re starting to see the aggressive nature of this offense pick up. We saw that in Ohio State’s win over Minnesota last week when Sayin was taking deep shots to WR Carnell Tate. Tate torched Minnesota, recording nine receptions for 183 yards. Sayin is playing really well, and his accuracy has blown me away. There’s not much you can do if you take away Ohio State’s best player, WR Jeremiah Smith, and its run game has been very good. This should be a great game.

There’s a reason why Oregon is favored by 7.5 points in this game: Oregon is an excellent team. Even though we’re talking about parity in college football, it does seem like three teams are starting to separate themselves through about the first half of the regular season — Ohio State, Miami (Fla.) and Oregon — but this is a monster matchup. It's going to tell us a lot about who is actually going to wind up in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has been excellent and a great fit in Curt Cignetti’s offense. He was electric against Illinois, getting the ball out and very accurate on the outside. I really like what they've got on the outside at wide receiver. Elijah Surratt, a guy who has really come on this year, and Omar Cooper have been fantastic. Iowa really came after Mendoza two weeks ago. Indiana was able to win that game, but Mendoza was blitzed on almost 70% of his passes. That’s one of the reasons why Iowa was able to stay in that game.

My question is, how does Indiana protect Mendoza? Oregon’s pass rush is very good, and its defensive line played excellent against Penn State. Also, can Indiana run the ball? If you can't run it and become one-dimensional on the road against that pass rush, it's not going to end well. It has got to establish the run game early in the first quarter for the RPO to be as effective as it needs to be.

On the flip side, Oregon's offense and QB Dante Moore have impressed me so much this year. His poise at Penn State, his playmaking ability, his arm talent — all of it. He has been one of the better players in the country. He would certainly be a Heisman Trophy finalist if I were voting right now. He has only been sacked once. The O-line, which was rebuilt through the transfer portal, has performed really well. Ducks RB Dierre Hill Jr. has been electric.

Going back to Oregon’s offensive line, that’s a dominant group. There's a chance that it could really own the line of scrimmage, even though Indiana, as we saw when it played Illinois, can get after it up front; it had seven sacks in that Illinois game. Indiana really has to get after Moore in order to win this game.

Indiana has taken care of business at home under Cignetti, but we haven’t seen the Hoosiers win a road game yet. They have to run the ball well and get after the quarterback to do that, but Oregon has won 41 of its past 42 home games. Because of Oregon’s mentality of being at home, I think it’s able to win this game and cover the spread.

Pick: Oregon 31, Indiana 21 (Oregon -7.5)

Texas hasn’t played well against an FBS opponent at all this season, especially on offense. That’s why it’s interesting to me that the Longhorns are favored by 1.5 points in this game.

Oklahoma QB John Mateer's status has been upgraded to probable for his game. He’s the Sooners’ offensive heart and soul, but he’ll only be 17 days removed from hand surgery when this game is played. He has been throwing the football early in the week, but as head coach Brent Venables said recently, he hasn't done any good-on-good work. So, could Mateer actually play well? If so, Oklahoma might have to put some statues up for Mateer’s surgeon.

Still, I expect this game to be somewhat low scoring. Both defenses are good, even though Texas didn’t play well defensively against Florida last week. We know Oklahoma’s defense is good. Statistically, it has the second-best defense in the nation. Texas allowing 29 points to Florida last week was jarring. I thought it was better than that, but the key for me in this game is what’s going on — or what’s not going on — for Texas’ offense as it prepares to face this Oklahoma defense. There’s no stretch from any game against an FBS opponent that Texas’ offense and QB Arch Manning can lean on. Texas doesn’t protect the passer well and Manning has really struggled. So, suddenly they’re going to turn it around offensively and do it against a team that’s as good as OU? Manning was under pressure in 60% of his dropbacks against Florida, and Oklahoma leads the nation in sacks per game.

I don’t see any evidence that Texas is going to turn it around on offense, so I’m taking Oklahoma in this game.

Pick: Oklahoma 20, Texas 17 (Oklahoma +1.5)

This could end up being the best game of the weekend because this is a great clash of styles, philosophies and identities. Michigan is going to lean in on the physical aspect of the game, while USC is going to lean into its skill and success at throwing the football. USC head coach Lincoln Riley is desperate for a win like this, and the Trojans still have games against Notre Dame and Oregon on the schedule. That said, if USC loses, it’s staring at the possibility of going 8-4. But if it wins? Maybe it could get to 10-2 and get into the College Football Playoff race.

USC’s offensive line is a bit of a concern in this game for me due to injuries. Starting left tackle Elijah Paige might not play. If he doesn’t, that means great Michigan edge rusher Jaishawn Barham will get to play against USC’s backup left tackle. That would favor Michigan.

The question for Michigan’s offense is: can it run the ball as effectively as Illinois did against USC? I think yes. Michigan’s run game is better and more physical than Illinois’. If it can do that, then the passing game will become a lot easier for QB Bryce Underwood & Co. Michigan has had a pair of mixed showings on the road this year, but it can lean on its physicality here.

USC also needs to lean on the run game and be more physical, but the evidence suggests that it won’t be as physical as it needs to be on defense.

Pick: Michigan 27, USC 24 (Michigan +2.5)

If you just strip away the logos on the helmet, you would never favor Alabama in this matchup. This game favors Missouri in almost every category. That’s why I was surprised by Alabama being favored by 3.5 points.

Alabama played well against Georgia and Vanderbilt, but both teams had chances to take down the Tide. Coming off those games, how healthy and energized is Alabama going to be on the road against Missouri, who's coming off a bye and played UMass a week prior? Alabama also hasn’t been great on the road under head coach Kalen DeBoer.

Missouri has the top rusher in the country, Ahmad Hardy. Alabama isn’t great at stopping the run, ranking 124th in the country. Alabama has also been dealing with health issues at linebacker, so advantage Missouri there. Missouri has also been good against the pass, leading the country in completion percentage allowed and pressure rate. Mizzou QB Beau Pribula can extend plays, using his legs similar to how FSU QB Tommy Castellanos did in Week 1 against Bama.

I’ve been warning about this with Alabama. It’s a bit of a one-dimensional team, and it’s going to have to find another way to win at some point. It could be this week when QB Ty Simpson is under duress and the Alabama passing game won’t be as effective as it has been. If that happens, where does Alabama go? It ran the ball better against Vanderbilt, but it wasn’t great.

I like Missouri here, and we might be talking about the Tigers being a bona fide CFP team come Saturday night.

Pick: Missouri 28, Alabama 24 (Missouri +3.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to "The Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.

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