Tense flirtation between Montenegro and Rocha leaves Melo alone

Luís Montenegro, on the other hand, has completely ignored Rui Rocha. Apart from specific incidents — such as the one on Espinho beach — which essentially resulted from provocations by journalists accompanying the AD caravan, the president of the Liberal Initiative has not appeared in the social democrat's speeches. Neither for better nor for worse. On Friday, in Pombal, he even made a brief mention to point out that his government is not liberal on housing. That's all. There is no unbridled praise, but there is also no continuation of criticism.

This is strange considering what is (or should be) the objective of any candidate in a campaign: to win as many votes as possible, especially in the ideological field in which he or she operates and when there is a natural intersection between electorates. In fact, according to the latest ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso/SIC, AD has 84% ​​of convinced voters, but there is a large margin for fishing in liberal waters — 28% of potential IL voters show some volatility . One would therefore expect Luís Montenegro to press on with the appeal for votes from this electoral segment. In the first week of the campaign, however, he did not do so.

And there is a reason for this. In fact, there are two: in the AD campaign, the liberals are expected to achieve the best possible result and thus have enough strength in Parliament to build a majority on the right; secondly, Luís Montenegro's hard core believes that the IL should be preserved as the preferred destination for votes from those dissatisfied with the AD — those on the right who do not want to vote for Montenegro will only vote for IL or Chega ; attacking the IL would indirectly reinforce Chega, which does not count on the AD's menu of solutions.

For the liberals, who when visiting fairs or hospitals encounter people asking them to “join Montenegro” and “form a majority”, the order is to ignore the issue as much as possible: the willingness to reach agreements is known and in the IL corridors it is believed that, therefore, it is not worth reinforcing it, otherwise the liberal campaign will start to revolve around the AD – and the party will become a satellite of Montenegro.

Right-wing voters, IL is confident, know that when the issue arises, the party will not turn its back on a government solution – or, in Rocha’s words, it will not be through the liberals “that there will be no stability in the country”. Therefore, the idea is mainly to talk about Montenegro, but to make a difference . It is necessary to combat the useful vote – which IL believes will have less expression this time because the dynamics of victory are on the AD’s side – and to ensure that the idea does not take hold that voting for Rocha or Montenegro will result in the same thing .

To avoid this dilution , the liberals are making a point of specifically highlighting proposals that go further than the AD, whether in terms of tax reductions or eliminations, the plan for the health system or social security (but they also repeat promises that the AD has already made, such as the relaunch of PPPs in health or the privatization of TAP). “Don't ask me if I'm going to be demanding, of course I'm going to be demanding,” Rocha said this week.

The idea is part of the IL’s entire campaign strategy: the van that the liberals drive everywhere has a sign painted with arrows pointing in different directions; the signs for “AD” and “PS” face the same way , the “IL” sign faces the other way. This is the idea that Rocha keeps insisting on, to wink at the right-wing electorate who expected Montenegro to have done more in this year of government: Montenegro has been governing “ à Costa ”; the influence of the liberals will bring the “energy” that is missing.

“The proposals are different: ours is for prosperity and change, AD’s is more of the same”, Rocha stresses, fulfilling the balancing act : after these criticisms of AD, he always reminds us that anyone who does not show themselves available to dialogue and “transform the country” will be “ useless ”. “I will not deviate from this speech, I apologize”, he told journalists in the middle of the week. There is no need: there is little doubt that, as long as it gains strength and deputies and has, with AD, at least as many deputies as the left – leaving Chega out of the equation –, IL will sit down at the table with Montenegro the day after the elections.