What Arch Manning stiff-arming the 2026 NFL Draft would mean for Texas, college football

Way-too-early mock draft aficionados beware: Texas quarterback Arch Manning is off the board in 2026.

Well, probably.

Sources have long indicated it's unlikely Manning would depart Austin after just one season as the starter. It'd go against his family's history -- both of his uncles, Peyton and Eli, stayed in college for four years -- and the general feeling inside the Texas program.

Arch Manning's grandfather warns NFL teams planning to tank for Texas QB ahead of 2026 draft

This week Arch's grandfather, Archie, went on the record this week with Texas Monthly and made his informed prediction about whether Arch would declare for the 2026 NFL Draft:

"Arch isn't going to do that. He'll be at Texas."

Grandad and grandson are close. They text almost daily. This likely isn't grandpa shooting from the hip. But it's important to note that there's a long way between now and January.

Maybe Manning performs up to a Heisman level and has a legitimate decision to make in terms of the NFL. There's also a possibility Manning is back at Texas regardless in 2026 because he's not ready for a pro leap. Remember, he's attempted only 95 passes in college thus far with just two starts. Those around the program are incredibly optimistic about what Manning can do this season. But it's all hypothetical production until he shows it for a sustained period as QB1.

Let's just take the statement at face value, though. Let's assume Manning returns to Texas for 2026. What does that mean for Texas and college football?

Texas will have the most valuable thing in college football come 2026: A senior quarterback (by years in school) who's projected as a first-round pick. That alone makes the Longhorns nationally competitive.

Then if you dive deep into Texas' roster, you could argue the sport's preseason No. 1 could be better next year.

There are only six seniors projected to start for Texas in 2025, including just two (Cole Hutson, DJ Campbell) on offense. A lot can change with the draft -- it's hard to see All-American linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. back in Austin in 2026, for example -- but the foundation of what is a reasonably young Texas team should return next year.

That idea rings especially true when you consider Manning's receivers. Only one upperclassman receiver (DeAndre Moore) is expected to even be in Texas' rotation this season. Manning returning for 2026 would allow budding stars like Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V to grow with him over the next two seasons, which is invaluable continuity.

Throw in the return of standouts like edge Colin Simmons or cornerback Kobe Black on the other side of the ball, and the Longhorns will be loaded come 2026 with few, if any, major holes to plug.

The assumption Manning will stay for the 2026 season eliminates a huge potential question for Texas this offseason and sets up an intriguing QB situation looking ahead to 2027.

First, Texas won't have to be in the transfer quarterback market in December. That would be a possibility if Manning declares for the draft given the only two experienced arms on the roster (Manning and Troy transfer Matthew Caldwell) would be gone.

Second, Manning opting to return sets up an intriguing competition between Trey Owens, Karle Lacey Jr. and Dia Bell in two years.

Owens is a big-armed former four-star recruit who saw a few snaps last season as a true freshman. Lacey, a four-star recruit from the 2025 class, was Mr. Football in the state of Alabama last year. Then there's Bell, a top 10 player in the 2026 class and someone who, by 2027, will be a redshirt freshman in Austin.

Will Owens, Lacey and Bell all be on campus come 2027? You never know in the transfer portal era. If they are, though, that will be the most competitive quarterback battle in the sport.

How's this for a hypothetical quarterback succession plan in Austin under Steve Sarkisian? Three years of former five-star recruit Quinn Ewers. Two years of former five-star recruit Arch Manning. Then at least two years of Bell, who will almost assuredly finish this cycle as a five-star recruit.

Nobody is recruiting and managing their quarterback room better than Texas at the moment.

College football players are rarely crossover stars. There are very few lightning rods like Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow who capture the attention of those outside the college football bubble.

Arch is one of those players. He's someone your Good Morning America-watching mom might text you about.

Manning, in large part due to his last name, was the subject of national debate talk shows as a high schooler. His brother, Heid, told me recently there were adult autograph seekers camping out Isidore Newman High School during Arch's junior year. Manning was on Texas' campus for less than a month before his lost student ID became a viral sensation.

There's college football famous and then just FAMOUS. Arch fits into the latter category. Him returning to the sport generates a level of general interest in college football that just isn't usually there outside of Deion Sanders.

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