Why Chelsea selling Noni Madueke to Arsenal would be a huge mistake for Blues

You don't have to search far to understand Chelsea's squad-building plans over the past three years. Todd Boehly has explained it on many occasions, including in February this year.

"You identify what you believe are younger players that come together," he said, "a portfolio of players that are going to be consistent and reliable and have the potential to be together for a very long time."

Whatever you might think of the plan in principle and execution, it is hard to see how a club intent on establishing a young core and allowing it to grow would even consider the prospect of losing Noni Madueke. That, however, is just what Chelsea are doing, as the Blues are in talks with Arsenal over the sale of the England international, according to CBS Sports sources. The move would be for nearly $70 million, nearly twice the fee they paid for him when he arrived from PSV Eindhoven in January 2023.

Madueke is understood to have agreed personal terms with Arsenal but club to club dialogue remains at the earliest stages. In other words, there is still time for Chelsea to change what appears to be their course on this particular transfer. Selling Madueke would run counter to a teambuilding process that has begun to show success over the last 18 months, most recently with the team advancing to the final of the Club World Cup.

Selling him to Arsenal would be a serious mistake.

By the end of the 2024-25 season, it was clear that Madueke was on the cusp of becoming a seriously impressive winger. The raw output in itself would not set scouting departments ablaze, 11 goals and five assists in 46 appearances across all competitions, but you wouldn't have to dig much below the surface to find a player making the leap. It was something of a down finishing season from Madueke, who turned 9.64 non-penalty expected goals into seven actual goals in the top flight. After a hat trick against Wolves early in the season, the output didn't flow as freely as might be expected, but that was not for the want of trying. The same was also true of Madueke's assists, three in the league of 4.2 expected goals assisted (xAG).

One of the most crucial factors Arsenal, or any other suitor, will want to see from a wide forward at age 23 is do they get shots. For players in attacking areas, there is perhaps no more valuable trait: even if the ball isn't going in, are you at least getting yourself in positions? Madueke did that, averaging three and a half shots per 90 Premier League minutes. No one in his position took more, not Bukayo Saka nor even Mohamed Salah. These weren't hit and hopers either, his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per shot more than doubling from 0.055 to 0.12, roughly the league average. Those improvements are apparent in the graphic below, a far greater proportion of shots in the box.

Watch those efforts back and you'll see the work that goes into Madueke testing the goalkeeper. Early in the season the goals kept coming in a more transitionary Chelsea attack, as Enzo Maresca's more strategic approach bedded in he found himself having to beat more men to get his shots away. The crucial thing, though, is that he did it. The ball might not have gone in for him during the 3-1 win over Liverpool in early May but that was a matter of serious good fortune for the champions, who on both flanks had no answer to Chelsea's No. 11.

Overall Madueke's npxG per 90 skyrocketed last season, rising from 0.15 to 0.42. That latter tally was bettered by three wingers -- Salah, Luis Diaz and Brennan Johnson -- and those latter two offered nothing like the ball carrying that Madueke does. Again Chelsea's right winger, so often a third option in the attack behind Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, ranks among the Premier League's very best. The wide players with more progressive carries than Madueke? The Manchester City duo of Savinho and Jeremy Doku. Observers at the Etihad Stadium won't need telling that that wing duo didn't match Madueke's Premier League goal output between them.

Madueke might not be the best crosser in the league and his passing has a fair way to go. But what cannot be disputed is that in 2024-25 he did a lot of things that positively impact winning. The numbers do not lie. His expected possession value added -- a stat that does exactly what it says on the tin, assessing how much every on-ball action affects winning -- is extremely high for a player who takes so many shots.

There will be those of you reading it who already know what your counter is. The eye test, bro. The vision of some might not place Madueke among the league's better wide forwards but the data does. If he occasionally looks like someone who runs down blind alleys and drives at full backs he can't get past, who makes the wrong call in an attempt to make something happen, well, he's a winger. That's what they do.

Madueke has skeptics to win over and the acceleration of interest from their club has prompted fury in some sections of the online Arsenal fanbase (admittedly not something that is tricky to do). Perhaps they don't like more ex-Chelsea players. Those years with Willian and Raheem Sterling will do that to you.

Maybe they worry about how he would settle into the dressing room, given the questions about his attitude and work rate that Maresca has publicly raised, although it hardly seems the worst thing in the world if Madueke is delivering such value in a diffident fashion.

There are, of course, valid questions about resource allocation when it comes to Madueke, who it should be noted has struggled with muscle injuries during his time at Chelsea. Arsenal are spending aggressively this summer, but Andrea Berta's credit card has limits. Is it worth pushing up to that for a player who profiles as an extremely good alternate for Bukayo Saka when there might be an opportunity to upgrade on Gabriel Martinelli on the opposite flank? Madueke has played on both sides for Chelsea but is more effective cutting in from the right on his stronger left foot. In limited Premier League minutes on the left flank, he averages under three shots per 90 and barely a chance created. He might also want to ask himself whether the role Arsenal have earmarked him is the best for his development, though given that personal terms are agreed between him and the Gunners, it is a bit late for second thoughts.

Perhaps Madueke might not be the right player for Arsenal's needs but that is not the same as him not being a player on a trajectory to play for one of Europe's top clubs. Given his improvements and where he ranks among his Premier League counterparts, it is hard to see how that wouldn't be the case. Not everyone on his current trajectory ends up a star but plenty of stars have a season like Madueke has just had at that sort of age.

Given that, why would Chelsea even entertain a dialogue with their rivals over Madueke? The 23-year-old has required more than one public dressing down over his attitude since he arrived at Stamford Bridge. Twice in December Maresca dropped the player, and his rebuke after a game against Aston Villa is not the sort managers tend to deliver unless they feel they do not have a choice.

"In the moment that he starts to score or assist and is happy, he starts to drop a little bit," Maresca said after a 3-0 win over Aston Villa. "The reason he was not playing is because I don't like the way he trained. He has to understand that he has to train every day good, he has to be ambitious. If he scores one tonight, he has to go for the second one, the third one.

"He has to be ambitious, to give more assists. But overall, he's doing great, he's doing fantastic."

These aren't incidents isolated to last season as well. It was not a good look to try to take a penalty from Cole Palmer in April of last year. Then again even those most skeptical about Madueke's attitude would have to acknowledge that it did not stop the youngster improving significantly last season.

Joao Pedro makes his mark for Chelsea at Club World Cup as Blues' attacking musical chairs continues

There is, of course, another argument for selling Madueke, that the money you take in for him can fund superior signings elsewhere. Take $70 million to $80 million for your No. 11 and turn that into Rodrygo or see if you can prise Bradley Barcola out of the Parc des Princes. That's smart business. Is flipping Madueke for Jamie Gittens? The former Borussia Dortmund man is a younger model and could address Chelsea's left wing troubles, but the 20-year-old averaged 0.31 npxG+xAG in last season's Bundesliga. Joao Pedro deepens Maresca's options, and it simply cannot be argued that he didn't score lots of penalties at Brighton.

Selling Madueke might work out for Chelsea. Willian Estevao looked exciting in his last match for Palmeiras, a defeat to his future employers. Gittens might pop too. It is, however, worth Chelsea remembering what former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham noted at their home ground four years ago. Even on deals with high confidence across a range of factors, it is essentially 50-50 as to whether any new signing pays off.

Madueke's has, a relatively low cost acquisition from a second tier European league who can play 2,000-plus minutes for a Champions League qualifier. There are no guarantees that he continues on last season's dramatic upwards trajectory but if he continues to develop on anything like that path then this is an outstanding player, one who could rank among the best and brightest in Boehly's "portfolio" of stars.