WE WON'T BE FOOLED: Glasgow Warriors boss Franco Smith isn't buying talk of Leinster's supposed confidence crisis

At first glance, Leinster ought to win Saturday afternoon’s URC semi-final against Glasgow with relative ease.

Twice these teams have met at the Aviva Stadium in recent months and on both occasions the home side have ran out victors, comfortably so in the Champions Cup quarter-final when the Dubliners put 52 unanswered points on a woeful Warriors unit.

Throw in home advantage again for the runaway league winners and the fact that Leinster remain the all-powerful behemoth of Celtic rugby then all signs would seem to be pointing to only one outcome.

And yet all is not well in the Leinster camp. A crisis of confidence has encircled Leo Cullen’s squad who, for all their presence and might, are in danger of winning nothing for a fourth successive season.

A failure to reach the Champions Cup final for the first time since 2021 - having been shown up by Northampton Saints’ young upstarts in the last four - has hit hard, prompting criticism of Cullen and defence coach Jacques Nienaber’s organisation and structure.

The Leinster fans seem to have lost heart, too, with just over 12,000 turning out for last weekend’s scrappy quarter-final win over Scarlets, prompting Cullen to take the unusual step of asking those who had voted with their feet to ‘please turn out in force’ for this match.

A long list of injuries to key figures like Josh van der Flier, Hugo Keenan, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Tadhg Furlong and Caelan Doris - all of whom will be in the Aviva stand for this one - has also removed another sheen from Leinster’s former aura of invincibility.

Even some of their own are starting to get worried, with former hooker Bernard Jackman this week speaking about Leinster being afflicted by ‘performance anxiety’ while fearing the players’ confidence is shot following that Northampton loss.

Glasgow have not been firing on all cylinders this season either but, since that Champions Cup capitulation, they have welcomed back Sione Tuipulotu, Henco Venter, Josh McKay and Scott Cummings from either injury or suspension, adding much-needed experience, power and guile for the season run-in.

Even without the British and Irish Lions pair Huw Jones and Zander Fagerson - who again miss out this weekend - Warriors looked back to their formidable best in the second half of the quarter-final win over the Stormers at Scotstoun last Friday.

And with Leinster suddenly looking vulnerable, the one-sided encounter that many had been expecting just a few short weeks ago should now be a lot closer and more competitive. It could be a tense affair at the Aviva.

Privately, Franco Smith will be well aware of how the landscape has shifted in his team’s favour in recent weeks but in public he was dismissive of the idea that Glasgow will be fronting up against a wounded giant desperate to stem the bleeding.

‘We absolutely ignore all of that,’ said the South African about talk of Leinster’s recent woes. ‘It’s got nothing to do with what’s going to happen between the teams there. I realise there’s a lot of talk. If they read it, it’s up to them.

‘We expect a team that gave us 50 points earlier this season. So, I’m not going to be lured into any trap regarding that. I know that they would like to perform well, so we expect everything from them.

‘I don’t want to call us the underdogs. But I think they’re the favourites. They’ve been playing well the whole season. We all know what it would mean to them to end at the top of this competition. They’ve got such a good side. They’ve got a good budget, a good academy system.

‘They’ve been on top of the game for eight or nine years. We know that they’re the favourites. We’re just going to go out there and give ourselves the best chance.’

Smith makes just two personnel changes from last week’s win over the Stormers but it is the reshuffling of the backline that is the most significant alteration. In comes Adam Hastings at fly-half, with Tom Jordan moving to centre, Tuipulotu switching from 12 to 13 and Stafford McDowall dropping to the bench.

With Leinster’s No 10 Sam Prendergast under a bit of heat and defensively susceptible, it gives Warriors a triple attacking threat while also adding ballast to their midfield.

‘Obviously, the game is all about strategy and tactics as well, so, without giving too much away, I think it’s an opportunity for Adam to add value,’ added Smith. ‘He’s got a different skill set than Tom.

‘It just balances a different approach when we play away from home. Maybe this week the challenge that Leinster offers is different.’

Might that backline switch confuse Leinster? ‘If it works out that way, it will be great,’ shrugged Smith. ‘But that was not the main objective, to be honest. We’ve just got good rugby players in that role and it’s good to have them out on the pitch.’

There is just one personnel change in the pack, Fin Richardson coming in at tighthead for Murphy Walker who struggled against the Stormers.

‘Murphy had a bit of a rib issue at the back end of the game last week which is unfortunate. It’s not serious but we have Fin recovered from his thumb injury.

‘He played really well the last time against Leinster and scrummed well against Andrew Porter so he merits the opportunity. That is the reason. We have a fit, ready player that played in that game and understands what the threat is.’

Smith, typically, has not spent this week reminding the players of the significance of the occasion nor harked too much back to this time last year when Glasgow surprised Munster at the same stage.

‘I don’t think it’s necessary to mention anything. The players know exactly. They’ve walked this road before so there’s no need for me to add some more energy to it. They’ve got the emotion and energy coming from themselves. The confidence that’s in the group is enough.’