Ranking five college basketball teams most likely to win first NCAA Tournament title in 2026
The last time college basketball had a first-time national champion was in 2021. That year's title game between No. 1 seeds Baylor and Gonzaga guaranteed that the sport would see a program win its first national title. Baylor went on to upset Gonzaga to win the program's first championship, but since then, Kansas, UConn (twice) and Florida have raised the trophy as familiar champions.
Houston came close to winning the program's first national title against Florida but squandered a 12-point second-half lead in a heartbreaking 65-63 loss. The Cougars may not have won their first national title this spring, but Houston will enter the 2025-26 season as the co-favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. Houston, Purdue and Duke (11-1) are all tied for the best odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook to win the national title.
Speaking of Purdue, the Final Four will be staged less than 70 miles away from its West Lafayette campus. The Boilermakers will have a substantial amount of buzz heading into next season because of the return of All-American guard Braden Smith and star big man Trey Kaufman-Renn.
So, who could be the next program in college basketball to win their first national title in 2026? Here are five teams who fit the bill.
1. PurdueOdds: +1200 | Final Four appearances: 3
The last time a team from the Big Ten won a national title was in 2000 when Michigan State was the last team standing. Purdue came up one game short of breaking that streak last year before losing to UConn in the 2024 title game.
Purdue didn't make any "splashes" this offseason with its roster. The Boilermakers added former South Dakota State big man Oscar Cluff, who projects as a starting frontcourt player. Where Purdue separates itself from others is roster retention. The Boilermakers are bringing back Smith -- a potential National Player of the Year candidate -- Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. That's a dynamic and experienced trio most teams can't stack up with.
2. HoustonOdds: +1100 | Final Four appearances: 7
Despite Houston being minutes away from finally getting over the hump and winning a national title, there's strong reason to be optimistic that a similar run can be possible. Star guard Milos Uzan withdrew from the NBA Draft and will return to Houston.
The Cougars have their best high school recruiting class coming in, headlined by five-star forward Chris Cenac Jr., the No. 7 overall player in his class. Houston also has two more top-20 prospects entering the program in four-star guard Isiah Harwell and four-star guard Kingston Flemings. Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler, both key pieces during Houston's run to the title game, also return.
Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches in the sport who has never won a national title. Sure, there could be room for a national championship loss hangover, but Houston should enter the season as a preseason top-three team. The Cougars have been dominant against Big 12 competition since joining the conference and have shown no signs of slowing down anytime soon.
Odds: +2000 | Final Four appearances: 0
If you aren't paying attention to what's happening at BYU, you probably should be. Last year, the program landed highly touted prospect Egor Demin, who projects as an early-to-mid first-round pick in this month's draft. Demin helped BYU reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011 when Jimmer Fredette was still with the team.
Demin was a solid player, but his impact might not come close to what five-star forward AJ Dybantsa may be able to accomplish this season. Dybantsa has been viewed as a top candidate to become the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft for years. He will join a roster that includes Baylor transfer Robert Wright lll and returning star forward Richie Saunders. BYU has never been to the Final Four, and if there is ever a year to break through, it's this upcoming season. Dybantsa can change the trajectory of BYU's program for years to come with a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
4. AlabamaOdds: +3500 | Final Four appearances: 1
The biggest (late) winner of last month's deadline to withdraw early from the draft was Alabama. With less than 30 minutes remaining until the deadline, star guard Labaron Philon stunned everyone by announcing he was returning for another season. Philon had a chance to be potentially drafted in the first round, so his return was surprising. It's even more shocking when you consider he told reporters at the NBA Draft Combine that the "door was closed" on a return to Alabama.
Philon's return changes Alabama's title outlook. Philon was one of the best guards in the SEC, and a substantial Year 2 jump has to be in the cards. Another player with a chance to improve in Year 2 is former five-star guard Jalil Bethea, who transferred to Alabama after one year at Miami. Alabama has the fifth-best odds (35-1) to win the title from the SEC, but don't be surprised if they jump one or two teams in the odds around the time of conference play.
Odds: +2500 | Final Four appearances: 2
Auburn saw its best team in program history come up one game short of playing for a national title after a loss to Florida in the Final Four. Star big man Johni Broome is gone. So is veteran forward Chad Baker-Mazara, but don't sleep on Auburn being a title contender.
Similar to Auburn's in-state rival, what will swing the program's title outcome will be the play of a star guard returning to school instead of staying in the draft. That would be Tahaad Pettiford, a projected first-round pick who came off the bench for the majority of his freshman campaign. Pettiford will enter Year 2 as a potential SEC Player of the Year and All-American candidate. He's a microwave scorer and is fully capable of being a mid-first-round pick in 2026.
KeShawn Murphy (Mississippi State) and Keyshawn Hall (UCF) will provide valuable forward depth for a team replacing most of its offensive production from the previous season. Texas Tech transfer Kevin Overton was one of the more underrated players on a team that reached the Elite Eight. Pettford is the key to Auburn making a deep run and winning the program's first national title, but the other key transfers round out another deep roster for coach Bruce Pearl.
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