College Football Playoff X-factors: Players poised to make or break contenders' 2025 postseason chances

Even with the expanded format, a lot has to go right for teams to punch their tickets to the College Football Playoff. One factor can make or break a postseason push, like the Miami defense did last season when the Hurricanes fell just short of their playoff debut. Ahead of the 2025 season, every CFP contender has at least one player or position group that needs to step up and play to their potential in order for the team to deliver on its playoff goals.

A large contingent of this year's CFP hopefuls are set to break in new quarterbacks, and performing at a high level from the jump is of the utmost importance. They are obvious X-factors in their teams' search for postseason berths. Most cases go deeper than just the quarterback spot, though. Their supporting casts are just as relevant.

Take Penn State as an example. Drew Allar has long been a promising signal-caller, but the lack of reliability out wide last season was a difference-maker in the Nittany Lions falling short of a national championship. The receiving corps is, thus, a major X-factor in 2025.

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Using spring playoff projections from CBS Sports, here is one X-factor player on each potential CFP team's roster:

Ohio State Buckeyes

Kenyatta Jackson Jr., DE

None of Ohio State's four starting defensive linemen from the national championship squad returned for 2025. Replacing veteran talent in the trenches is one of the toughest tasks in college football roster building, but the Buckeyes are uniquely positioned to attack that challenge head-on. Everything has been building to this moment for Kenyatta Jackson Jr., whom the Ohio State coaches have not been shy about naming a team leader ahead of his starting debut. The former top-100 recruit was one of the defense's top reserves over the last two years, but while the expectation is that he thrives in an expanded role, he is entirely unproven as the leading weapon in the pass rushing scheme.

Texas Longhorns

Trevor Goosby, OT

Four starters from last year's offensive line are out the door. That is not an ideal situation as Texas turns the page to a new era at quarterback. Trevor Goosby will be integral in protecting Arch Manning in his first year as the starter, and he will do so on the blind side as the next man up at left tackle. Goosby was splendid in his spot starts down the stretch last season, and he needs to be so over a larger sample size in order for the Longhorns offense to keep rolling amid its turnover.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Trebor Pena, WR

Penn State was a reliable wide receiver group away from a potentially special 2024 season. James Franklin addressed the dire need through the transfer portal and overhauled the unit with newcomers including former Syracuse standout Trebor Pena, who came out of nowhere last season to lead the ACC with 84 catches in by far the best year of his career. If he can maintain his status as a go-to target against tougher secondaries in the Big Ten, he may be just what Allar and the offense needs to take the next step and create a well-rounded attack. Pena's minimal track record as a standout makes it slightly difficult to project another monster season, though.

Clemson Tigers

Gideon Davidson, RB

The best-case scenario for Clemson is that Gideon Davidson steps in as a true freshman, establishes himself as a standout and never looks back as the featured ballcarrier. That would solve what is probably the biggest question mark on an otherwise loaded, balanced and experienced roster. The running back room is such a sizable concern that the Tigers moved wide receiver Adam Randall to potentially serve as a top option. As strong as the passing game figures to be, Clemson has to keep defenses honest with at least a serviceable ground attack.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Jaden Greathouse, WR

Nearly half of Jaden Greathouse's production last season came in the CFP semifinal and national championship game. He racked up 13 catches, 233 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame's two biggest games of the year, and while his sample size as a prolific receiver is limited to those two outings, the breakout makes him the top candidate to lead the way for the Fighting Irish in 2025. This offense needs a steady target to help projected starting quarterback CJ Carr thrive in his first year atop the unit, as it can only lean on star ballcarrier Jeremiyah Love so much.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Qua Russaw, LB

The Alabama defense lost some of its identity last season as the pass rushing scheme lacked explosiveness and did not feature the superstar-caliber edge rushers that were cornerstones of the roster under Nick Saban. Someone needs to take a step forward in 2025 for the Crimson Tide to be more than just a mid-tier defensive front. Enter Qua Russaw, who cut his teeth as a redshirt freshman and should be the top option at the "wolf" position in Year 3. He managed just one sack a year ago, and Alabama needs more from the former No. 64 overall recruit.

Oregon Ducks

Dakorien Moore, WR

There will be a lot of pressure on Dakorien Moore to produce as a true freshman. Oregon's ability to contend for another Big Ten title largely hinges on him flourishing right out of the gate. The Ducks were always going to rely on the No. 1 wide receiver recruit, but his role only got bigger when top returning target Evan Stewart sustained what is feared to be a potential season-ending injury. That is on top of the necessity to make life easy on a new starting quarterback in Dante Moore.

LSU Tigers

Patrick Payton, DE

Patrick Payton regressed along with the rest of the Florida State roster last year, and LSU bought low on the formerly fearsome pass rusher, who boasts a career high of seven sacks. He is just one of the countless investments in the Tigers' top-ranked transfer class, and he could be the biggest hit of the bunch if he reverses course and returns to the trajectory that made him one of college football's most tantalizing linemen entering the 2024 season. LSU -- at +1700 to win the national title according to FanDuel Sportsbook -- needs its defense to finally hold up its end of the bargain if Brian Kelly is to reach the CFP for the first time in his tenure. A lot hinges on Payton being the face of the front line if not the entire unit.

Miami Hurricanes

Xavier Lucas, CB

The defensive backfield singlehandedly cost Miami a playoff berth last season with its inability to contain ACC passing attacks, and Mario Cristobal overhauled the unit with a dazzling transfer haul. Xavier Lucas was the top-ranked corner in the portal and serves as the face of this new-look unit, which looks deeper and more talented than the one that struggled last fall. Much of the excitement around Lucas is still rooted in projection considering he has just one year of experience under his belt and posted one interception and two pass breakups at Wisconsin, so a lot hinges on him taking the expected sophomore leap.

Georgia Bulldogs

Gunner Stockton, QB

Of all the playoff teams set to feature first-time starting quarterbacks, Georgia's situation has arguably the murkiest upside. Gunner Stockton was a top-10 recruit at his position but is a longtime backup who only modestly impressed in his relief of the injured Carson Beck last postseason. The Bulldogs notoriously got the most out of less heralded prospects at this position throughout their reign atop the sport, so perhaps Stockton is the next in line in that regard. If he is, then pencil Georgia back into the bracket. If he is not, then the Bulldogs are likely a bubble team.

Iowa State Cyclones

Chase Sowell, WR

Iowa State will be one of the most experienced teams in the country with its 14 returning starters, but its few departures were notable. Most glaring were the losses of two 1,000-yard receivers from one of the best teams in school history. That is where Chase Sowell steps in. The East Carolina transfer posted back-to-back 600-yard campaigns and might be flying under that radar as an unheralded portal prospect. He could thrive in this Cyclones offense, and to be frank, he has to in order for Iowa State to get back to double-digit wins.

Navy Midshipmen

Blake Horvath, QB

The margins are so slim for Group of Five teams with regard to playoff contention that everything has to go right. For Navy, it starts and ends with Blake Horvath. He is the star, the X-factor, the heart and soul and the face of this program on its hunt to secure the G5's auto bid. Horvath took the Navy offense to a new level in his junior season when he became the third quarterback in school history to rack up 1,200 rushing yards and 1,200 passing yards in the same season, and he forces defenses to stay honest against the pass, making the triple option all the more threatening. A repeat performance against a manageable schedule could send the Midshipmen to the CFP.