Bracketology Bubble Watch: Arkansas, BYU and VCU boost their NCAA Tournament résumés with big wins
BYU was again the big winner among bubble teams in action Saturday. I got a chance to see the Cougars live at Cincinnati two weeks ago. It was not a great performance in a blowout loss to the Bearcats. However, they have not lost since. BYU won at Arizona on Saturday night, giving the Cougars two consecutive wins vs. AP Top 25 teams. They have four games left and should be favored in at least two of them. They are in good shape if they win those.
VCU also picked up a big win on Saturday. The Rams knocked off George Mason to tie the Colonials atop the Atlantic 10 standings. VCU is off the bubble for now not because they would definitely be an at-large team, but because I do not typically put conference leaders on the bubble. Any loss would put the Rams back on this list though.
Wake Forest took a bad loss at NC State. That is a Quad 2 loss for the moment and the Demon Deacons already have a loss in Quad 3. Their only win over a team that will definitely make the NCAA Tournament came against Michigan. Unfortunately for Wake Forest, the ACC does not provide many chances for quality wins. Its last chance is at Duke on March 3. Otherwise, all it has is "must not lose" games against league also-rans.
Vanderbilt and Arkansas picked up big home wins in the SEC. The Commodores knocked off Ole Miss while the Razorbacks beat Mizzou. Vandy is not out of the woods yet with a road trip to Texas A&M and a home game with the Tigers up next.
Arkansas is now up to 9-11 against the top three quadrants. Only one team has received an at-large bid that was more than one game below .500 against that group of teams (Temple, 2016). The committee does not have that particular stat handy when evaluating teams, but it should not surprise anyone that a team below .500 against the top 3 quadrants will have a resume that is lacking. That said, I would not be shocked if an SEC team that was two games below .500 against Quadrants 1-3 gets in this season.
Texas is also 9-11 vs Q1-3 after an ugly loss at South Carolina. The Longhorns host Arkansas on Tuesday. Georgia fell to 8-11 against the top three quads in an 82-70 loss to No. 1 Auburn. The Bulldogs host Florida next, followed by a trip to Texas. The climb into the bracket may be too steep for Georgia.
The teams that played in the championship games of last year's NCAA Tournament are featured in Sunday's bubble action.
UConn is actually on the bubble, but could change that with a win over St. John's at Madison Square Garden.
Purdue is not a bubble team, but the Boilermakers are trying to stop a three-game losing streak and deal a blow to Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes in Bloomington. The Hoosiers started the weekend as the first team out of the bracket.
Check out Palm's latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action Sundayat St. John's, Noon | Fox, fubo (Try for free)
The Huskies are not on the bubble because of an inability to beat teams like St. John's. It is because they cannot be trusted to win the games they are supposed to win. That said, another quality win like this one makes life more comfortable for UConn.
vs. Purdue, 1:30 p.m. | CBS
The Hoosiers are hanging on at 15-11 overall and 11-11 against the top three quadrants. Indiana has just one win over a team that will likely make the NCAA Tournament though. That came last week at Michigan State. All 11 losses are to Quad 1 teams, which is good and bad. It's good because they usually beat the teams they should, but bad because they also do not usually beat the teams they shouldn't.
at Seton Hall, 2 p.m. | FS1, fubo (Try for free)
Xavier needs better wins than this, but the Musketeers will have to wait until next weekend for that. In the meantime, every other game is a "must win," especially this one against one of the Big East's bottom teams.
at UCLA, 3:45 p.m. | CBS
The Buckeyes got embarrassed at home against Northwestern this week and dropped to 15-12. Now, they have a lot to do if they hope to end up with a good enough record to be considered for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State's margin for error is pretty much gone.
Teams near the cut line NCAA Tournament locksLocks based on résumé: 16 | At-large bids in play: 21 | Automatic bids secured: 0 of 31
| ACC (1) | Duke |
| Big 12 (3) | Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech |
| Big Ten (5) | Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin |
| SEC (7) | Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M |
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.
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