TNF Divisional! Will the Broncos crush the Raiders with their elite defense, or will Vegas pull off an upset?

The Denver Broncos (7-2) are looking to end the Kansas City Chiefs' nine-year reign in the AFC West and will try to extend their lead in the division this Thursday night when they host the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6). That divisional game kicks off Week 10 of the NFL season, officially beginning the second half of the season.

The Broncos are riding a six-game winning streak, though four of those wins have come by a single possession and three by a field goal or less. It sometimes feels like the Broncos ' offense doesn't get going until the fourth quarter. On average, they've scored only 4.33 points in each of the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, they average 10.7 points.

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But because their defense allows an average of 18 points per game (4th best in the league), Denver has capitalized on opportunities in the 4th quarter to win their games. And it's not just that Denver 's defense allows few points: it's the defense that allows the fewest yards per play (4.5 yards per play), pressures the opposing quarterback the most, gets the most sacks per game (4.4), allows only 3.3 yards per carry, and allows the fewest explosive plays.

The Raiders will face a formidable defensive force, and their offense may struggle more than usual to move the chains. Las Vegas averages just 5 yards per play (27th in the league), 3.8 yards per carry (30th in the league), and ranks 24th in passing yards per game. The outlook is bleak for the offense led by Geno Smith, who, in addition to ranking third-to-last in average yards per play for quarterbacks with at least 300 passes, also lost one of his top three receivers with the departure of Jakobi Meyers, who was traded to Jacksonville on trade deadline day.

Defensively, Vegas doesn't have much to boast about. In almost every metric, they're a unit in the bottom third of the league.

Tendencies

The last 5 times the Raiders visited Denver , the home team was favored and won 4 of those 5. Although last year the Broncos won and covered the -3 line to end that losing streak at home against this division rival.

The line for this game opened with Denver as a 9.5-point favorite, and it's held steady; the 9 has only appeared in a few places. The total points line opened at 42 points and has been trending upward. It can be found between 42.5 and 43 points. Personally, I have a line for this game at just over 8. But I'm going to have to eat my words with the Broncos -9 @ -110. The Raiders lost an offensive weapon and are coming off an overtime loss to Jacksonville. A short week and overtime a week early don't usually produce good results.

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Column record: 46-32

2025 Season: 12-10