Did Ferrari make a mistake by swapping Hamilton for Carlos Sainz? The million-dollar question.

Turbulence has begun around Ferrari that may turn into a storm. The media ban on Fred Vasseur was lifted in light of Ferrari's performance on the eve of the Canadian Grand Prix. The rumored candidacy of Antonio Coletta, head of the program for the World Endurance Championship and the 24 Hours of Le Mans, does not appear to be mere media speculation, according to this source.

Lewis Hamilton 's performance is putting even more pressure on Vasseur . It's no longer just the SF25. Although he predated the Briton's arrival, the Frenchman's arrival at Ferrari was linked to Hamilton's. Hence, the Frenchman desperately needs his comeback.

Was Hamilton's expensive signing a mistake? Did Ferrari make a mistake by letting go of Carlos Sainz, who knew their cars and was integrated into Maranello? Voices will clamor over the achievements of both sides, but the answer should be different. For such an investment, comes a corresponding return.

But the issue is about performance at a specific moment and with the tools available. Just ask Sebastian Vettel with Charles Leclerc, for example . Hence, it will take time to know the answer in the case of the Briton. In short, Lewis Hamilton will need to complete the same journey that Carlos Sainz already made. So far, there's no indication he's achieving it.

Doubts about Hamilton and this generation of cars

The picture after ten races hasn't changed. Hamilton finished half a minute behind Leclerc in Saudi Arabia and at Montmeló he was the epitome of complete despondency. In Canada, he also couldn't keep up with the Monegasque. Hamilton hasn't quite found his groove with the SF25. Nor does he seem to be getting along with his engineer, Andrea Adami, although that's a different topic.

“I'm using (at Ferrari) engine braking, something we've never used in previous years. Also, very different brakes. This car requires a very different driving style, so I'm adapting, and I think I'm slowly getting the hang of it,” explains the Briton. While Leclerc uses the combination of engine braking, conventional braking, and steering input more effectively in corners to rotate the car at greater speed, the Briton can't yet imitate him with the same confidence.

Given his unfavorable history with George Russell at Mercedes, it's worth considering whether the Briton's traditional style clashes with the handling of ground-effect cars, especially on a single lap, when Hamilton can't apply the aggressive braking and corner entry he used in previous-generation cars. With such a different driver now at Ferrari and facing an established driver like Leclerc, the problem would have been exacerbated. Time will confirm or deny this theory.

Carlos Sainz recently pinpointed the crux of the matter with laser-like precision, alluding to the difficulty of adaptation for both himself at Williams and Hamilton at Ferrari. “These single-seaters (ground effect) have to be driven in a very specific way to be fast. With the 2021 cars (his first year with Ferrari), you could arrive with two or three different driving styles and achieve practically the same lap time, because the car allowed you to reach that limit in different ways.” We'll return to Sainz's experience in his first year with Ferrari later.

“The more I drive this generation of cars, the more I analyze the data, the more I realize that you have to stick to one driving style, and if you don't drive that way, you'll never be fast,” Sainz explained, and this applies to Hamilton, who has just joined Ferrari. “How the car interacts with you, what allows you to drive in that specific way, and you have to make sure you understand that. These cars are particularly difficult.”

The blow to Sainz

Because the Madrid native also suffered at Ferrari, albeit in two distinct phases. In 2021, it was a switch from McLaren . Corner entry style, turn-in, and different types of cornering were all new to Sainz with the SF1000 . However, it was a generation well known to everyone, including the engineers, with extensive experience with those cars, which helped accelerate the driver's progression. At the end of the year, he finished ahead of Leclerc in the points.

"After the first few races of 2021, I knew where the car's limits were. I just needed to find one or two tenths in a certain type of corner and I was ready to compete. That's why the second half of the season was so good and why I was able to dominate it," Sainz recalled of that season . The situation is very different with ground-effect cars.

But in 2022, it wasn't just a team change. The arrival of ground effect was a blow to Sainz , as the driving style required to master it worked against him, unlike Leclerc. For Sainz , an ordeal began. Unlike the previous generation, the engineers were unaware of the new wing cars . With Hamilton, this specific aspect is no longer a determining factor.

“I kept the origin of my difficulties a secret. I had to completely change my driving style, my way of driving, in a very unnatural way, which took a lot of time,” Sainz explained about that 2022 season. “I also had to try things with the setup, and most of them were wrong, so we had to rediscover the right direction, and this required racing.” In other words, time. The same applies to Hamilton .

Sainz noted that something changed for him in Canada 2022. His first victory at Silverstone soon followed. In 2023, Sainz and Leclerc were neck and neck, with the Spaniard ahead until the famous Miami culvert. Furthermore, Vasseur acknowledged that the technical approach recommended by Sainz that year helped save the championship.

By 2024, the Madrid native was fully integrated with his team and car. He even opposed the technical developments Ferrari was preparing and introducing at Montmeló in January. He warned that adding more load, as the technical team sought, would increase the SF24's rebound. And so it was. Ferrari lost three vital months and the title to McLaren. The drivers weren't an issue until 2024. This season, it's the car, and one of them, the most expensive and famous.

Hamilton is going through the same process as Carlos Sainz . Titles and experience no longer matter, only results. “I think I've driven with a certain style and in a certain way with the same team for so long, and now that I've switched to a new car, it requires a very different driving style and setup,” Hamilton explained in Bahrain . He has a mirror to look up to and surpass. Sebastian Vettel couldn't do that.