Title probabilities in Europe's football leagues: Inner balance
The research group "CIES Football Observatory" recently presented a statistical model that can be used to calculate the championship probability of individual teams within their league. The analysis uses both the club's financial metrics and the performance data of individual players in the squad. The result is a simple percentage that is intended to quantify the realistic chance of winning the championship. The football horoscope spits out the following figures for the European leagues:
RB Salzburg has a 41.8% probability of winning the Austrian Bundesliga. Austria Vienna (21.7%), Sturm Graz (18.7%), and Rapid Vienna (13%) follow.
In the Czech first division, Slavia (46.3%) and Sparta Prague (30.2%) could afford a thrilling duel. Viktoria Pilsen (16.2%) and Banik Ostrava (4.7%) follow in third and fourth place, according to CIES.
Things could get exciting in La Liga. Defending champion FC Barcelona only has a 29.6 percent chance of winning the title. New to the top spot? Real Madrid (40.6%). Also in the running? Atlético Madrid (22.1%).
Who will reach the pinnacle of Greek football? CIES and the club's name agree: Olympiacos Piraeus (36.5%)! With a 29% chance of winning the title, AEK Athens likely have a say. PAOK Thessaloniki (19%) and Panathinaikos (10.1%) are less likely.
Looking at these numbers, you might think that the Romanian championship title is taking a sabbatical this year: FCSB (47.9%), Dinamo Bucharest (15.7%), CFR Cluj (11.8%), Rapid Bucharest (8.8%) and Universitatea Craiova (7.1%).
The battle for the championship in the Danish Superliga is also expected to be only semi-exciting. It's wind at the top, and Copenhagen holds the stage: FCK has a 60.3% chance of finishing top of the table at the end of the season. AGF Aarhus (14.2%), Brøndby IF (12.4%), and FC Midtjylland (5.6%) should at least make it into the top third.
Only ten teams compete in the Slovenian first division. Their chances of winning the title are as follows: NK Celje (63.4%), Olimpija Ljubljana (21.6%), NK Maribor (6.9%), and FC Koper (6.0%).
After winning the championship last season, Liverpool's Reds shouldn't have too many squad concerns. Nonsense ! The club spent €480 million on the transfer market. According to CIES, it was money well spent. Their chances of winning the title are 28.9%. Their biggest rivals are Arsenal (18.8%), Chelsea (16.2%), Manchester City (14.4%), and—watch out—Nottingham Forest (7.9%). Manchester United's chances of winning the title are now just 2.6%.
In Poland, Legia Warsaw (41%) is expected to bring the championship title to the capital. The record champions' last title was four years ago. The angel number 222 represents being in the right place at the right time. Lech Poznań's title probability of 22.2% for second place. Also in the running are Raków Częstochowa (11.7%) and Jagiellonia Bialystok (10.2%).
The Belgian Jupiter Pro League could also be exciting this year. Club Bruges has a 36.3% chance of winning the title. Union SG (24.9%), KRG Genk (16.2%), and RSC Anderlecht (14.9%) are hot on their heels.
According to the CIES, Shakhtar Donetsk (59.6%) will become the new Ukrainian champion, much to the chagrin of Dynamo Kyiv (21.9%). Third in the list is Metalist 1925 (6.6%).
Will Celtic put Rangers in a stranglehold again? This season will be particularly interesting in Scotland, as the two Glasgow clubs have currently won the same number of league titles. However, Celtic's chances of winning the record title (63.3%) are better than Rangers' (28.9%).
Slovan Bratislava is burning it all! They have a 59.7% chance of becoming champions. DK DAC 1904 has a 20.4% chance, and Spartak Trnava has a 12.8% chance.
Because everything is simply more fun in Swiss German: The defending champions from Basel will likely win the championship again (48.2%). Young Boys from Bern (27%) and FC Lugano (12.7%) follow in the next places.
Dinamo Zagreb (63.2%) is expected to win the SuperSport HNL this year. If that's not a reason to celebrate! The remaining nine clubs in the league lag behind, according to the calculations: Hajduk Split (18.4%), HNK Rijeka (9.5%), and NK Osijek (7.1%), to name just a few.
Anyone wanting to witness a true battle for the title this year will have to tune in to Serie A. There have been three different champions in the past four years. Inter Milan (25.6%), record champions Juventus Turin (18.2%), reigning champions SSC Napoli (17.4%), AS Roma (13.3%), and AC Milan (11.3%) could be in for a close race.
In Serbia, a red star is set to rise and—surprise surprise—bring a title to the capital. Red Star Belgrade's championship probability is 76.2%. The other clubs are lagging behind. Still, FK Vojvodina (9%) and Radnički 1923 (5.1%) have outside chances.
With Victor Oshimen and Leory Sané on the books, Galatasaray's title should be a mere formality this season. According to CIES, Galatasaray (55.3%) is expected to bring the title to Istanbul. Fenerbahçe (18.1%) and Beşiktaş (17.8%) could have a thrilling battle for second place.
CIES is certain: Paris's upward trend continues. PSG (73%) is expected to win the title again. AS Monaco (7.7%) and Olympique Marseille (5.9%) have modest hopes. Lyon, after narrowly avoiding relegation , is at just 2.3%.
Sporting or Benfica? It doesn't matter, as long as it's Lisbon! Despite the departure of Viktor Gyökeres, Sporting is expected to win the championship again (39.3%). City rivals Benfica (24.5%), Braga (21.1%), and FC Porto (10%) follow.
Rotterdam against Eindhoven, and Amsterdam is far behind? That's more or less the outcome in the Netherlands. Feyenoord (28.6%) is expected to snatch the title from PSV Eindhoven (25.6%) this year. Ajax Amsterdam (13.8%) will have to settle for third place. Only AZ Alkmaar (12.7%) could challenge that.
In Hungary, the situation is clear: Ferencváros Budapest (64.6%) is set to become champions. Even Puskás Akademia (17%) and Újpest FC (11.2%) can no longer cause any trouble.
And every year the same thing happens: Bayern Munich are highly likely (61.4%) to win the German championship for the 35th time. Surprisingly, Borussia Dortmund comes in second with a title probability of just 8.8%. Closely followed by Leverkusen (8.3%) and Stuttgart (6.9%). The in-form Frankfurt team will have to settle for 3.3% for now.
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