Jonas Vingegaard has only one hope in the final days of the Tour de France: the total collapse of Tadej Pogacar

Jonas Vingegaard tried everything again on Thursday. He launched his first attack 70 kilometers from the finish, on the penultimate climb of the stage. But as always at this Tour de France, someone stayed on his tail when the 28-year-old Dane got out of the saddle and increased the pace: Tadej Pogacar, the yellow jersey wearer and three-time Tour winner.

Vingegaard is second in the overall standings, over four minutes behind – an eternity in modern cycling. Before the start of the queen stage on Thursday, he said: "I'm going to risk everything today." He has no choice but to put everything on the line: a full-bore attack. But that doesn't help much; despite numerous attacks, Pogacar, 26, remains calm in the saddle and calmly follows behind. A Kafkaesquely hopeless situation for Vingegaard. He tries everything, but finds no answer against the super-Slovene rider.

Vingegaard must have felt like a bad dream over the past two weeks. After a serious accident during preparation for the 2024 Tour de France , he said before this year's Grand Départ that he was stronger than ever. He had gained muscle and was now more explosive – it's long been known that he's among the best in the world, especially on the high passes. He felt ready to challenge the dominant rider, Pogacar, Vingegaard said before the start in Lille.

Vingegaard sounds different now, more perplexed. After all, he and his team, Visma – Lease a Bike, have had hope before, but it was dashed each time. The opportunities to put Pogacar in trouble would have been there during this Tour. Vingegaard's team is stronger than the UAE squad, especially in the high mountains – even more so after João Almeida, Pogacar's most important supporter in the mountains, retired after a crash.

The route also worked in Vingegaard's favor. He decisively distanced Pogacar on three climbs in the last four editions of the Tour de France: the mountaintop finish in Hautacam, Mont Ventoux , and the Col de la Loze . This helped him win the Tour in 2022 and 2023. These three climbs were all on the agenda again this year. Pogacar said: "The route was probably planned that way to scare me a bit." Vingegaard's advantage?

It all started in Hautacam. Three years ago, Vingegaard took over a minute off Pogacar on the climb to this ski resort in the Pyrenees. This year, everything was different. Pogacar attacked, Vingegaard suffered a setback, and the difference at the finish was two minutes in favor of the Slovenian. The first chance was gone.

Before the Alpine stages in the third week of the Tour, Vingegaard said: "I had two bad days in the Pyrenees. Otherwise, I feel on par with Pogacar." He still believes he will turn things around in the Alps and secure his third Tour victory. These were little more than mere words of perseverance.

The Dane tried many things, attacking several times on Tuesday on Mont Ventoux, while Pogacar stayed close and stalked Vingegaard – and overtook his opponent in the final meters. On the climb to the Giant of Provence, this mystical mountain, the two smashed Marco Pantani's previous best time from 1994 by three minutes. The Italian set his record during the doping-plagued years of cycling. This also raises questions about the performances of Pogacar and Vingegaard.

Vingegaard said on Monday's rest day that he was feeling better the longer the Tour lasted. Perfect conditions for Thursday's queen stage, four days before the end, with the finish at the Col de la Loze, which has become Pogacar's Waterloo in 2023. Back then, Pogacar completely collapsed, losing six minutes – and the Tour de France to Vingegaard. In addition, Pogacar said on the rest day that he had been suffering from a sore throat for days.

Apart from a half-hearted attack with 70 kilometers to go, nothing happened for a long time during Thursday's stage. Pogacar's team confidently controlled the race. At the Col de la Loze, the supposed mountain of fear, kilometer after kilometer slipped by without Vingegaard making any attempt to increase the pace.

Then, less than a kilometer from the finish, Vingegaard tries one last time. He already seems desperate. The following scenes accurately summarize Vingegaard's 2025 Tour de France: He attacks, Pogacar counters, and the leader distances Vingegaard in the final meters of the final climb. Pogacar takes several meters and another nine seconds off his toughest rival. These hardly matter in the overall standings; but they are psychological pinpricks.

The reasons for Vingegaard's failure in the Pyrenees and Alpine stages could be sought in the details. For example, in the illness of Matteo Jorgenson, Vingegaard's most important assistant in the mountains. Or in the fact that his team allowed strong assistants to aim for a stage win in less difficult stages. Visma – Lease a Bike has won one stage victory this Tour de France, Pogacar four, and Vingegaard none. The real reason is therefore mundane: Vingegaard may be as strong as ever, but Pogacar is simply even better.

The final, tough mountain stage of this Tour de France is scheduled for Friday. Vingegaard's only remaining hope is that Tadej Pogacar will collapse completely.

Cycling. 112th Tour de France. Stage 18, Vif–Courchevel (171.5 km / 5450 m HD): 1. Ben O'Connor (AUS) 5:03:47 hours. 2. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) 1:45 minutes back. 3. Jonas Vingegaard (DEN) 1:54. 4. Oscar Onley (GBR) 1:58. 5. Einer Rubio (COL) 2:00. 6. Felix Gall (AUT) 2:25. 7. Primoz Rogic (SLO) 2:46. – 11. Florian Lipowitz (GER) 3:37. 40. Marc Hirschi (SUI) 33:23. 57. Silvan Dillier (SUI) 36:20. 78. Mauro Schmid (SUI) 37:48. 127. Fabian Lienhard 42:07. – Overall ranking (18/21): 1. Pogacar 66:55:42. 2. Vingegaard 4:26. 3. Lipowitz 11:01. 4. Onley 11:23. 5. Roglic 12:49. 6. Gall 15:36. – Also: 87. Hirschi 3:25:33. 103. Schmid 3:45:20. 126. Dillier 4:23:47. 158. Lienhard 4:54:24. – 161 classified.